Opta's Predictions for the Final Matchday of the Champions League Group Stage

Opta’s AI has revealed its predictions for the outcomes of the eighth and final matchday of the Champions League group stage. While few surprises are anticipated, the final standings may still shift dramatically.

The Champions League group stage is coming to a close with its eighth matchday. The rankings remain fluid, with many clubs still vying for a spot in the knockout rounds or playoffs. Teams like OM and AS Monaco must secure their positions, while FC Barcelona hopes to advance to the next stage, making for an exciting day of matches.

Four clubs have already been mathematically eliminated: Kairat, Villarreal, Slavia Prague, and Eintracht Frankfurt. Teams with only six points face an uphill battle to qualify, especially given their challenging matches ahead. One of the biggest surprises this matchday could be the potential exit of Napoli if they fail to defeat Chelsea.

Predictions for the Eighth Matchday of the Champions League

Source: Opta, January 28, 2026

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Home Team	Home Win Probability	Draw Probability	Away Win Probability	Away Team
Ajax	33.1%	26%	40.9%	Olympiakos
Arsenal	85.8%	19.2%	>5%	Kairat
AS Monaco	25.8%	25.5%	48.7%	Juventus
Athletic Bilbao	34.5%	27.3%	38.2%	Sporting
Atlético Madrid	70.4%	16.1%	13.5%	Bodo/Glimt
Bayer 04	52.6%	22.5%	24.9%	Villarreal
B. Dortmund	33.6%	26.3%	40.1%	Inter Milan
Club Bruges	35.9%	25%	39.1%	OM
E. Francfort	25.2%	24%	50.8%	Tottenham
FC Barcelone	78.1%	11.9%	>10%	FC Copenhague
Liverpool	81%	9%	>10%	Qarabag
Manchester City	74.1%	14.8%	11.1%	Galatasaray
Pafos	34.7%	26.7%	38.6%	Slavia Prague
PSG	56.8%	20.7%	22.5%	Newcastle
PSV	19.5%	21.2%	59.3%	Bayern Munich
Union SG	29.5%	25.4%	45.1%	Atalanta
SL Benfica	25.8%	23.3%	50.9%	Real Madrid
Naples	30.4%	25.5%	44.1%	Chelsea